Monday: Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales
Thanks!
Curtis D. Harris, BS, CGREA, REB
Bachelor of Science in Real Estate, CSULA
State Certified General Appraiser
Real Estate Broker
ASTM E-2018 Commercial Real Estate Inspector
HUD 203k Consultant
HUD/FHA Real Estate Appraiser/Reviewer
FannieMae REO ConsultantCTAC LEED Certification The Harris Company, Forensic Appraisers and Real Estate Consultants
*PIRS/Harris Company and the Science of Real Estate-Partners*630 North Sepulveda Boulevard, Suite 9A
El Segundo, CA. 90245
310-337-1973 Office
310-251-3959 CellWebSite: http://www.harriscompanyrec.com Resume: http://www.harriscompanyrec.com/rESUME2011.pdf Commercial Appraiser Blog: http://commercialappraiser.typepad.com/blog/ IT'S THE LAW-Designation Discrimination is Illegal [FIRREA, Sec. 564.6]: Professional Association Membership: "A State Certified General Appraiser may not be excluded from consideration for an assignment for a federally related transaction by virtue of membership or lack of membership in any particular appraisal organization," including the appraisal institute. http://www.ofi.state.la.us/re-otspart565.pdf CONFIDENTIALITY/PRIVILEGE NOTICE: This transmission and any attachments are intended solely for the addressee. The information contained in this transmission is confidential in nature and protected from further use or disclosure under U.S. Pub. L. 106-102, 113 U.S. Stat. 1338 (1999), and may be subject to consultant/appraiser-client or other legal privilege. Your use or disclosure of this information for any purpose other than that intended by its transmittal is strictly prohibited and may subject you to fines and/or penalties under federal and state law. If you are not the intended recipient of this transmission, please destroy all copies received and confirm destruction to the sender via return transmittal.
From: Calculated Risk [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Monday, November 30, 2015 10:16 AM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Calculated Risk
Today's Top StoriesMonday: Chicago PMI, Pending Home SalesChicago PMI declines to 48.7NAR: Pending Home Sales Index increased 0.2% in October, up 3.9% year-over-yearRestaurant Performance Index indicates faster expansion in October
Monday: Chicago PMI, Pending Home SalesFrom the WSJ: Divergent Paths for U.S., European Central BanksThis break in rate policy, particularly between the Fed and the European Central Bank, could strengthen the dollar even further against the euro, crimping U.S. exporters while giving a leg up to European ones.
The divergent paths highlight how much more vigorous the U.S. recovery has been, particularly on th...
Chicago PMI declines to 48.7Chicago PMI: Nov Chicago Business Barometer Down 7.5 Points To 48.7 The Chicago Business Barometer decreased 7.5 points to 48.7 in November from 56.2 in October, as a sharp fall in New Orders put it back into contraction for the sixth time this year.
The significant decline in the Barometer is indicative of the see-saw pattern of demand seen in 2015, with output and orders shifting in and out of contraction. The November fall also suggests that activity over the final quarter of the year may well decelerate barring a bounceback in December.
New Orders fell 15.3 points to 44.1 in November from 59.4 in October, leaving it at the lowest level since March. Production also fell sharply, although managed to hold just above the neutral 50 level that separates expansion from contraction.
...
Chief Economist of MNI Indicators Philip Uglow said, ?That the Barometer was unable to hold on to the gain seen in October is a reflection of the erratic pattern of demand seen throughout 2015. The slowdown in the global economy, the strong dollar and decline in oil prices have all impacted businesses this year to varying degrees.?
emphasis added This was well below the consensus forecast of 54.0.
SPONSORED POST 4 in 5 Americans Are Ignoring Buffett's WarningYou'll probably be surprised to learn what Warren Buffett recently called a "real threat". View our FREE report to see if you're heeding Buffett's warning, and see how you could actually profit from it! (Click Here to Automatically Subscribe)
NAR: Pending Home Sales Index increased 0.2% in October, up 3.9% year-over-yearFrom the NAR: Pending Home Sales Nudge Forward in OctoberThe Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, inched 0.2 percent to 107.7 in October from an upwardly revised 107.5 in September and is now 3.9 percent above October 2014 (103.7). The index has increased year-over-year for 14 consecutive months.
...
The PHSI in the Northeast rose 4.5 percent to 93.6 in October, and is now 6.8 percent above a year ago. In the Midwest the index declined 1.0 percent to 103.9 in October, but remains 3.3 percent above October 2014.
Pending home sales in the South decreased 1.7 percent to an index of 118.1 in October and are now 0.3 percent below last October. The index in the West climbed 1.7 percent in October to 106.2, and is 10.4 percent above a year ago.
emphasis addedThis is below expectations of a 1% increase for this index. Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in November and December.
Restaurant Performance Index indicates faster expansion in OctoberHere is a minor indicator I follow from the National Restaurant Association: Restaurant Performance Index Rose in OctoberDriven by stronger same-store sales and a more optimistic outlook among restaurant operators, the National Restaurant Association?s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) posted a moderate gain in October. The RPI ? a monthly composite index that tracks the health of and outlook for the U.S. restaurant industry ? stood at 102.1 in October, up 0.7 percent from a level of 101.4 in September. In addition, October represented the 32nd consecutive month in which the RPI stood above 100, which signifies expansion in the index of key industry indicators.
...
?The October gain in the RPI was buoyed by broad-based improvements in the current situation indicators,? said Hudson Riehle, senior vice president of the Research and Knowledge Group for the Association. ?In addition, restaurant operators are somewhat more optimistic about both sales growth and the economy in the months ahead.?
emphasis addedClick on graph for larger image.
The index increased to 102.1 in October, down from 101.4 in September. (above 100 indicates expansion).
Restaurant spending is discretionary, so even though this is "D-list" data, I like to check it every month. This index is indicated decent expansion in October, and it appears restaurants are benefiting from lower gasoline prices and the improved labor market.
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Thanks!
Curtis D. Harris, BS, CGREA, REB
Bachelor of Science in Real Estate, CSULA
State Certified General Appraiser
Real Estate Broker
ASTM E-2018 Commercial Real Estate Inspector
HUD 203k Consultant
HUD/FHA Real Estate Appraiser/Reviewer
FannieMae REO ConsultantCTAC LEED Certification The Harris Company, Forensic Appraisers and Real Estate Consultants
*PIRS/Harris Company and the Science of Real Estate-Partners*630 North Sepulveda Boulevard, Suite 9A
El Segundo, CA. 90245
310-337-1973 Office
310-251-3959 CellWebSite: http://www.harriscompanyrec.com Resume: http://www.harriscompanyrec.com/rESUME2011.pdf Commercial Appraiser Blog: http://commercialappraiser.typepad.com/blog/ IT'S THE LAW-Designation Discrimination is Illegal [FIRREA, Sec. 564.6]: Professional Association Membership: "A State Certified General Appraiser may not be excluded from consideration for an assignment for a federally related transaction by virtue of membership or lack of membership in any particular appraisal organization," including the appraisal institute. http://www.ofi.state.la.us/re-otspart565.pdf CONFIDENTIALITY/PRIVILEGE NOTICE: This transmission and any attachments are intended solely for the addressee. The information contained in this transmission is confidential in nature and protected from further use or disclosure under U.S. Pub. L. 106-102, 113 U.S. Stat. 1338 (1999), and may be subject to consultant/appraiser-client or other legal privilege. Your use or disclosure of this information for any purpose other than that intended by its transmittal is strictly prohibited and may subject you to fines and/or penalties under federal and state law. If you are not the intended recipient of this transmission, please destroy all copies received and confirm destruction to the sender via return transmittal.
From: Calculated Risk [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Monday, November 30, 2015 10:16 AM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Calculated Risk
Today's Top StoriesMonday: Chicago PMI, Pending Home SalesChicago PMI declines to 48.7NAR: Pending Home Sales Index increased 0.2% in October, up 3.9% year-over-yearRestaurant Performance Index indicates faster expansion in October
Monday: Chicago PMI, Pending Home SalesFrom the WSJ: Divergent Paths for U.S., European Central BanksThis break in rate policy, particularly between the Fed and the European Central Bank, could strengthen the dollar even further against the euro, crimping U.S. exporters while giving a leg up to European ones.
The divergent paths highlight how much more vigorous the U.S. recovery has been, particularly on th...
Chicago PMI declines to 48.7Chicago PMI: Nov Chicago Business Barometer Down 7.5 Points To 48.7 The Chicago Business Barometer decreased 7.5 points to 48.7 in November from 56.2 in October, as a sharp fall in New Orders put it back into contraction for the sixth time this year.
The significant decline in the Barometer is indicative of the see-saw pattern of demand seen in 2015, with output and orders shifting in and out of contraction. The November fall also suggests that activity over the final quarter of the year may well decelerate barring a bounceback in December.
New Orders fell 15.3 points to 44.1 in November from 59.4 in October, leaving it at the lowest level since March. Production also fell sharply, although managed to hold just above the neutral 50 level that separates expansion from contraction.
...
Chief Economist of MNI Indicators Philip Uglow said, ?That the Barometer was unable to hold on to the gain seen in October is a reflection of the erratic pattern of demand seen throughout 2015. The slowdown in the global economy, the strong dollar and decline in oil prices have all impacted businesses this year to varying degrees.?
emphasis added This was well below the consensus forecast of 54.0.
SPONSORED POST 4 in 5 Americans Are Ignoring Buffett's WarningYou'll probably be surprised to learn what Warren Buffett recently called a "real threat". View our FREE report to see if you're heeding Buffett's warning, and see how you could actually profit from it! (Click Here to Automatically Subscribe)
NAR: Pending Home Sales Index increased 0.2% in October, up 3.9% year-over-yearFrom the NAR: Pending Home Sales Nudge Forward in OctoberThe Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, inched 0.2 percent to 107.7 in October from an upwardly revised 107.5 in September and is now 3.9 percent above October 2014 (103.7). The index has increased year-over-year for 14 consecutive months.
...
The PHSI in the Northeast rose 4.5 percent to 93.6 in October, and is now 6.8 percent above a year ago. In the Midwest the index declined 1.0 percent to 103.9 in October, but remains 3.3 percent above October 2014.
Pending home sales in the South decreased 1.7 percent to an index of 118.1 in October and are now 0.3 percent below last October. The index in the West climbed 1.7 percent in October to 106.2, and is 10.4 percent above a year ago.
emphasis addedThis is below expectations of a 1% increase for this index. Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in November and December.
Restaurant Performance Index indicates faster expansion in OctoberHere is a minor indicator I follow from the National Restaurant Association: Restaurant Performance Index Rose in OctoberDriven by stronger same-store sales and a more optimistic outlook among restaurant operators, the National Restaurant Association?s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) posted a moderate gain in October. The RPI ? a monthly composite index that tracks the health of and outlook for the U.S. restaurant industry ? stood at 102.1 in October, up 0.7 percent from a level of 101.4 in September. In addition, October represented the 32nd consecutive month in which the RPI stood above 100, which signifies expansion in the index of key industry indicators.
...
?The October gain in the RPI was buoyed by broad-based improvements in the current situation indicators,? said Hudson Riehle, senior vice president of the Research and Knowledge Group for the Association. ?In addition, restaurant operators are somewhat more optimistic about both sales growth and the economy in the months ahead.?
emphasis addedClick on graph for larger image.
The index increased to 102.1 in October, down from 101.4 in September. (above 100 indicates expansion).
Restaurant spending is discretionary, so even though this is "D-list" data, I like to check it every month. This index is indicated decent expansion in October, and it appears restaurants are benefiting from lower gasoline prices and the improved labor market.
You are subscribed to email updates from Calculated Risk
To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.Powered by InvestingChannelCalculated Risk Blog, P.O. Box 567, Midtown Station, New York, New York 10018
DISCLAIMER:
This alert has been sent to you courtesy of calculatedriskblog.com
This is not a solicitation for the purchase or sale of securities.
Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research and due diligence,
and/or obtain professional advice, prior to making any investment decision.
Advertisements and sponsorships are provided as a service to CalculatedRiskBlog users.
CalculatedRiskBlog is not responsible for their content, services or products.
The statements and opinions contained in this advertisement are not those of CalculatedRiskBlog,
and CalculatedRiskBlog disclaims and liability for or arising from such statements and opinions.
commercial appraiser, commercial appraisal, commercial appraiser la
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