Untitled Document
Thanks!
Curtis D. Harris, BS, CGREA, REB
Bachelor of Science in Real Estate, CSULA
State Certified General Appraiser
Real Estate Broker
ASTM E-2018 Commercial Real Estate Inspector
HUD 203k Consultant
HUD/FHA Real Estate Appraiser/Reviewer
FannieMae REO ConsultantCTAC LEED Certification The Harris Company, Forensic Appraisers and Real Estate Consultants
*PIRS/Harris Company and the Science of Real Estate-Partners*630 North Sepulveda Boulevard, Suite 9A
El Segundo, CA. 90245
310-337-1973 Office
310-251-3959 CellWebSite: http://www.harriscompanyrec.com Resume: http://www.harriscompanyrec.com/rESUME2011.pdf Commercial Appraiser Blog: http://commercialappraiser.typepad.com/blog/ IT'S THE LAW-Designation Discrimination is Illegal [FIRREA, Sec. 564.6]: Professional Association Membership: "A State Certified General Appraiser may not be excluded from consideration for an assignment for a federally related transaction by virtue of membership or lack of membership in any particular appraisal organization," including the appraisal institute. http://www.ofi.state.la.us/re-otspart565.pdf CONFIDENTIALITY/PRIVILEGE NOTICE: This transmission and any attachments are intended solely for the addressee. The information contained in this transmission is confidential in nature and protected from further use or disclosure under U.S. Pub. L. 106-102, 113 U.S. Stat. 1338 (1999), and may be subject to consultant/appraiser-client or other legal privilege. Your use or disclosure of this information for any purpose other than that intended by its transmittal is strictly prohibited and may subject you to fines and/or penalties under federal and state law. If you are not the intended recipient of this transmission, please destroy all copies received and confirm destruction to the sender via return transmittal.
From: Calculated Risk [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Friday, October 30, 2015 10:10 AM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Calculated Risk
Calculated Risk
Lawler: Builders say Labor Shortages Delaying Closings, Pushing Up Costs; and Some Other ObservationsZillow Forecast: Expect September Year-over-year Change for Case-Shiller Index Similar to AugustFriday: Personal Income and Outlays, Employment Cost Index, Chicago PMI, Consumer SentimentBEA: Personal Income increased 0.1% in September, Core PCE prices up 1.3% year-over-yearChicago PMI increases Sharply, Final October Consumer Sentiment at 90.0Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in September, Lowest since October 2008Lawler: Builders say Labor Shortages Delaying Closings, Pushing Up Costs; and Some Other Observations Posted: 10/29/2015 3:04:00 PM
From housing economist Tom Lawler:
Several builders have released earnings and had earnings conference calls for the quarter ended September 30, 2015, and one of the key ?themes? from builders was that resource ?constraints,? specifically with respect to labor, slowed home closings last quarter, and in some cases contributed to weaker than expected net orders. PulteGroup, M/I Homes, Meritage Homes, and MDC Holdings all said, in one form or another, that labor ?shortages? ? laborers, land development, and various trades ? had resulted both in accelerating labor costs and delays in land development and home construction. Most builders said that the main impact in terms of their operating results were lower-than-expected home closings last quarter, though one said that in some markets longer construction timelines appear to have led some buyers to forgo a home purchase.
Most builders noted that both land and labor costs had increased ?significantly? of late, though costs of most materials were down. Several of the builders said that they were ?able? to increase prices to match increases in overall construction costs in most markets, though at least one builder implied that price hikes in a few markets where costs had increased significantly may have led to fewer home orders.
While only one builder ? Meritage -- gave specific numbers on the intra-quarterly patterrn of net home orders last quarter, the numbers were startling. According to a Meritage official, the YOY % change in the company?s net orders was +22% in July and +8% in August, but -15% in September. The official wasn?t sure what prompted the sharp slowdown in home orders in September, but he said he was pretty sure other builders say the same drop-off in sales in September. (Earlier this week Census reported that its preliminary estimate of new home sales fell sharply on a seasonally adjusted basis from August to September.) He also said that based on preliminary numbers it appeared as if net home orders would be up 10 to 15% YOY in October.
Commentary on first-time buyers has been mixed. PultgGroup showed a chart suggesting that 33% of its home deliveries last quarter were to ?first-time buyers,? but in response to a question (about prices) an official said that PulteGroup was not so much focused on ?entry-level? fist-time buyers but more on ?affluent? first-time buyers purchasing homes in the $300,000-$400,000 range. M/I Homes said that it was ?watching? for signs that the entry-level home buyer market was improving, and that it would be ?ready to respond,? but that at present it had no new product plants designed for that market. Officials did note, however, that in the early part of last decade it sold a ?substantial? number of sub-2,000 square-foot homes.
Meritage Homes, in contrast, said that it had seen an improvement in the demand from first-time buyers, and that it planned to increase its offerings of smaller, lower price homes over the next year.
On of the more striking aspects of the most recent ?recovery? in single-family housing production has been the incredible low production levels of new single-family homes that are ?affordable? to what used to be considered the ?typical? first-time buyer.
While builders with a presence in Houston for the most part have downplayed the severity of the weakness in the Houston housing markets, Meritage officials gave some intra-quarterly color that suggested the market had deteriorated significantly over the past few months. Specifically, officials said that company?s sales cancellation rate have ?spiked up,? and that sales has fallen ?significantly,? over the past 60 days.
Flipping back to the ?substantial? increase in labor costs at home builders, the BLS data on average hourly earnings for construction workers (including those involved in building single-family homes) does not show the sort of increases builders are reporting. One would assume, however, that they will soon.
Here is a summary of some selected stats from builders who have reported results for the quarter ended September 30, 2015.
Net OrdersSettlementsAverage Closing
Price ($000s)Qtr. Ended:9/159/14% Chg9/159/14% Chg9/159/14% ChgPulteGroup4,0923,7798.3%4,3564,646-6.2%336.0334.00.6%NVR3,2582,93611.0%3,6073,23611.5%380.4366.23.9%Meritage Homes1,5671,5004.5%1,7121,52212.5%387.0358.08.1%MDC Holdings1,1091,0812.6%1,0801,093-1.2%421.1370.613.6%M/I Homes98889210.8%9949850.9%349.0320.09.1%Total11,01410,1888.1%11,74911,4822.3%366.0348.55.0%
Zillow Forecast: Expect September Year-over-year Change for Case-Shiller Index Similar to August Posted: 10/29/2015 6:10:00 PM
The Case-Shiller house price indexes for August were released Tuesday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.
From Zillow: September Case-Shiller Forecast: Look for Continued Modest Growth in Pace of Appreciationhe August S&P Case-Shiller (SPCS) data published [Tuesday] showed home prices rising on a seasonally-adjusted monthly basis, with slight rises in the 10- and 20- city indices and almost half a percentage point rise in the national index.
We expect the September SPCS to show similar slight increases of 0.1 percent for the 10-City Index and 0.2 percent for the 20-City Index from August to September. The national index is expected to gain half of a percentage point over the same period (seasonally adjusted). We expect the 10- City and national indices to both grow 4.7 percent for the year ending in September, and the 20-City Index to grow 5.1 percent, the same rates of annual appreciation reported for August.
All SPCS forecasts are shown in the table below. These forecasts are based on today?s August SPCS data release and the September 2015 Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), released October 26. The SPCS Composite Home Price Indices for September will not be officially released until Tuesday, November 24.This suggests the year-over-year change for the September Case-Shiller National index will be about the same as in the August report.
Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast Case-Shiller
Composite 10Case-Shiller
Composite 20Case-Shiller
NationalNSASANSASANSASAAugust
Actual YoY4.7%4.7%5.1%5.1%4.7%4.7%September
Forecast
YoY4.7%4.7%5.1%5.1%4.7%4.7%September
Forecast
MoM-0.1%0.1%-0.1%0.2%0.0%0.5%
Friday: Personal Income and Outlays, Employment Cost Index, Chicago PMI, Consumer Sentiment Posted: 10/29/2015 9:10:00 PM
Earlier today, the UCLA Ziman Center for Real Estate released some predictions for 2016: [W]e are forecasting housing starts of 1.14 million units this year and 1.42 million units and 1.44 million units in 2016 and 2017, respectively. ...
Our forecast is underpinned by continued growth in real GDP that will likely run at 3% in 2016, continued jobs gains in excess of 200,000 a month for most of the forecast period, relatively low mortgage rates at least through 2016 and household formations in excess of one million a year in 2016 and 2017.This housing start forecast for 2016 seems way too optimistic and I doubt the builders could ramp up that quickly. Also I doubt we will see 200 thousand jobs added per month through 2017; it takes less that 100 thousand jobs per month to hold the unemployment rate steady - and I've been expecting job growth to slow.
Friday:
? At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays for September. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in personal income, and for a 0.2% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.
? Also at 8:30 AM, the Employment Cost Index for Q3. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in Q3.
? At 9:45 AM, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for October. The consensus is for a reading of 49.2, up from 48.7 in September.
? At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for October). The consensus is for a reading of 92.5, up from the preliminary reading of 92.1.
BEA: Personal Income increased 0.1% in September, Core PCE prices up 1.3% year-over-year Posted: 10/30/2015 8:32:00 AM
From the BEA, the Personal Income and Outlays report for September: Personal income increased $18.6 billion, or 0.1 percent ... in September, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
...
Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.2 percent in September, compared with an increase of 0.4 percent in August. ... The price index for PCE decreased 0.1 percent in September, compared with a decrease of less than 0.1 percent in August. The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.1 percent in September, the same increase as in August.
The September price index for PCE increased 0.2 percent from September a year ago. The September PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 1.3 percent from September a year ago.On inflation: the PCE price index was up 0.2% year-over-year (the decline in oil prices pushed down the headline price index). However core PCE is only up 1.3% year-over-year - still way below the Fed's target.
Chicago PMI increases Sharply, Final October Consumer Sentiment at 90.0 Posted: 10/30/2015 10:00:00 AM
Chicago PMI: Oct Chicago Business Barometer Up 7.5 Points To 56.2 The Chicago Business Barometer increased 7.5 points to 56.2 in October from 48.7 in September, led by strong gains in both Production and New Orders.
The sharp increase in the Barometer pushed it to the highest since January and marks a promising start to the fourth quarter, building on the small gain made in Q3.
...
Chief Economist of MNI Indicators Philip Uglow said, ?The dissapointing September data look more like an aberration than the start of a trend, and the October results mark a good start to the final quarter of the year. Respondents were optimistic that orders will continue to pick-up, consistent with an acceleration in economic activity in Q4.?
emphasis added This was well above the consensus forecast of 49.2.
Click on graph for larger image.
The final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for October was at 90.0, down from the preliminary reading of 92.1, and up from 87.2 in September.
Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in September, Lowest since October 2008 Posted: 10/30/2015 12:54:00 PM
Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate declined in September to 1.41%, down from 1.45% in August. Freddie's rate is down from 1.96% in September 2014, and the rate in September was the lowest level since October 2008.
Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%.
These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".
Note: Fannie Mae will report their Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate for September soon.
Click on graph for larger image
Although the rate is declining, the "normal" serious delinquency rate is under 1%.
The serious delinquency rate has fallen 0.55 percentage points over the last year, and at that rate of improvement, the serious delinquency rate will not be below 1% until the second half of 2016.
So even though delinquencies and distressed sales are declining, I expect an above normal level of Fannie and Freddie distressed sales through 2016 (mostly in judicial foreclosure states).
You are subscribed to email updates from Calculated Risk
To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.Powered by InvestingChannelCalculated Risk Blog, P.O. Box 567, Midtown Station, New York, New York 10018
DISCLAIMER:
This alert has been sent to you courtesy of calculatedriskblog.com
This is not a solicitation for the purchase or sale of securities.
Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research and due diligence,
and/or obtain professional advice, prior to making any investment decision.
Advertisements and sponsorships are provided as a service to CalculatedRiskBlog users.
CalculatedRiskBlog is not responsible for their content, services or products.
The statements and opinions contained in this advertisement are not those of CalculatedRiskBlog,
and CalculatedRiskBlog disclaims and liability for or arising from such statements and opinions.
Thanks!
Curtis D. Harris, BS, CGREA, REB
Bachelor of Science in Real Estate, CSULA
State Certified General Appraiser
Real Estate Broker
ASTM E-2018 Commercial Real Estate Inspector
HUD 203k Consultant
HUD/FHA Real Estate Appraiser/Reviewer
FannieMae REO ConsultantCTAC LEED Certification The Harris Company, Forensic Appraisers and Real Estate Consultants
*PIRS/Harris Company and the Science of Real Estate-Partners*630 North Sepulveda Boulevard, Suite 9A
El Segundo, CA. 90245
310-337-1973 Office
310-251-3959 CellWebSite: http://www.harriscompanyrec.com Resume: http://www.harriscompanyrec.com/rESUME2011.pdf Commercial Appraiser Blog: http://commercialappraiser.typepad.com/blog/ IT'S THE LAW-Designation Discrimination is Illegal [FIRREA, Sec. 564.6]: Professional Association Membership: "A State Certified General Appraiser may not be excluded from consideration for an assignment for a federally related transaction by virtue of membership or lack of membership in any particular appraisal organization," including the appraisal institute. http://www.ofi.state.la.us/re-otspart565.pdf CONFIDENTIALITY/PRIVILEGE NOTICE: This transmission and any attachments are intended solely for the addressee. The information contained in this transmission is confidential in nature and protected from further use or disclosure under U.S. Pub. L. 106-102, 113 U.S. Stat. 1338 (1999), and may be subject to consultant/appraiser-client or other legal privilege. Your use or disclosure of this information for any purpose other than that intended by its transmittal is strictly prohibited and may subject you to fines and/or penalties under federal and state law. If you are not the intended recipient of this transmission, please destroy all copies received and confirm destruction to the sender via return transmittal.
From: Calculated Risk [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Friday, October 30, 2015 10:10 AM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Calculated Risk
Calculated Risk
Lawler: Builders say Labor Shortages Delaying Closings, Pushing Up Costs; and Some Other ObservationsZillow Forecast: Expect September Year-over-year Change for Case-Shiller Index Similar to AugustFriday: Personal Income and Outlays, Employment Cost Index, Chicago PMI, Consumer SentimentBEA: Personal Income increased 0.1% in September, Core PCE prices up 1.3% year-over-yearChicago PMI increases Sharply, Final October Consumer Sentiment at 90.0Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in September, Lowest since October 2008Lawler: Builders say Labor Shortages Delaying Closings, Pushing Up Costs; and Some Other Observations Posted: 10/29/2015 3:04:00 PM
From housing economist Tom Lawler:
Several builders have released earnings and had earnings conference calls for the quarter ended September 30, 2015, and one of the key ?themes? from builders was that resource ?constraints,? specifically with respect to labor, slowed home closings last quarter, and in some cases contributed to weaker than expected net orders. PulteGroup, M/I Homes, Meritage Homes, and MDC Holdings all said, in one form or another, that labor ?shortages? ? laborers, land development, and various trades ? had resulted both in accelerating labor costs and delays in land development and home construction. Most builders said that the main impact in terms of their operating results were lower-than-expected home closings last quarter, though one said that in some markets longer construction timelines appear to have led some buyers to forgo a home purchase.
Most builders noted that both land and labor costs had increased ?significantly? of late, though costs of most materials were down. Several of the builders said that they were ?able? to increase prices to match increases in overall construction costs in most markets, though at least one builder implied that price hikes in a few markets where costs had increased significantly may have led to fewer home orders.
While only one builder ? Meritage -- gave specific numbers on the intra-quarterly patterrn of net home orders last quarter, the numbers were startling. According to a Meritage official, the YOY % change in the company?s net orders was +22% in July and +8% in August, but -15% in September. The official wasn?t sure what prompted the sharp slowdown in home orders in September, but he said he was pretty sure other builders say the same drop-off in sales in September. (Earlier this week Census reported that its preliminary estimate of new home sales fell sharply on a seasonally adjusted basis from August to September.) He also said that based on preliminary numbers it appeared as if net home orders would be up 10 to 15% YOY in October.
Commentary on first-time buyers has been mixed. PultgGroup showed a chart suggesting that 33% of its home deliveries last quarter were to ?first-time buyers,? but in response to a question (about prices) an official said that PulteGroup was not so much focused on ?entry-level? fist-time buyers but more on ?affluent? first-time buyers purchasing homes in the $300,000-$400,000 range. M/I Homes said that it was ?watching? for signs that the entry-level home buyer market was improving, and that it would be ?ready to respond,? but that at present it had no new product plants designed for that market. Officials did note, however, that in the early part of last decade it sold a ?substantial? number of sub-2,000 square-foot homes.
Meritage Homes, in contrast, said that it had seen an improvement in the demand from first-time buyers, and that it planned to increase its offerings of smaller, lower price homes over the next year.
On of the more striking aspects of the most recent ?recovery? in single-family housing production has been the incredible low production levels of new single-family homes that are ?affordable? to what used to be considered the ?typical? first-time buyer.
While builders with a presence in Houston for the most part have downplayed the severity of the weakness in the Houston housing markets, Meritage officials gave some intra-quarterly color that suggested the market had deteriorated significantly over the past few months. Specifically, officials said that company?s sales cancellation rate have ?spiked up,? and that sales has fallen ?significantly,? over the past 60 days.
Flipping back to the ?substantial? increase in labor costs at home builders, the BLS data on average hourly earnings for construction workers (including those involved in building single-family homes) does not show the sort of increases builders are reporting. One would assume, however, that they will soon.
Here is a summary of some selected stats from builders who have reported results for the quarter ended September 30, 2015.
Net OrdersSettlementsAverage Closing
Price ($000s)Qtr. Ended:9/159/14% Chg9/159/14% Chg9/159/14% ChgPulteGroup4,0923,7798.3%4,3564,646-6.2%336.0334.00.6%NVR3,2582,93611.0%3,6073,23611.5%380.4366.23.9%Meritage Homes1,5671,5004.5%1,7121,52212.5%387.0358.08.1%MDC Holdings1,1091,0812.6%1,0801,093-1.2%421.1370.613.6%M/I Homes98889210.8%9949850.9%349.0320.09.1%Total11,01410,1888.1%11,74911,4822.3%366.0348.55.0%
Zillow Forecast: Expect September Year-over-year Change for Case-Shiller Index Similar to August Posted: 10/29/2015 6:10:00 PM
The Case-Shiller house price indexes for August were released Tuesday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.
From Zillow: September Case-Shiller Forecast: Look for Continued Modest Growth in Pace of Appreciationhe August S&P Case-Shiller (SPCS) data published [Tuesday] showed home prices rising on a seasonally-adjusted monthly basis, with slight rises in the 10- and 20- city indices and almost half a percentage point rise in the national index.
We expect the September SPCS to show similar slight increases of 0.1 percent for the 10-City Index and 0.2 percent for the 20-City Index from August to September. The national index is expected to gain half of a percentage point over the same period (seasonally adjusted). We expect the 10- City and national indices to both grow 4.7 percent for the year ending in September, and the 20-City Index to grow 5.1 percent, the same rates of annual appreciation reported for August.
All SPCS forecasts are shown in the table below. These forecasts are based on today?s August SPCS data release and the September 2015 Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), released October 26. The SPCS Composite Home Price Indices for September will not be officially released until Tuesday, November 24.This suggests the year-over-year change for the September Case-Shiller National index will be about the same as in the August report.
Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast Case-Shiller
Composite 10Case-Shiller
Composite 20Case-Shiller
NationalNSASANSASANSASAAugust
Actual YoY4.7%4.7%5.1%5.1%4.7%4.7%September
Forecast
YoY4.7%4.7%5.1%5.1%4.7%4.7%September
Forecast
MoM-0.1%0.1%-0.1%0.2%0.0%0.5%
Friday: Personal Income and Outlays, Employment Cost Index, Chicago PMI, Consumer Sentiment Posted: 10/29/2015 9:10:00 PM
Earlier today, the UCLA Ziman Center for Real Estate released some predictions for 2016: [W]e are forecasting housing starts of 1.14 million units this year and 1.42 million units and 1.44 million units in 2016 and 2017, respectively. ...
Our forecast is underpinned by continued growth in real GDP that will likely run at 3% in 2016, continued jobs gains in excess of 200,000 a month for most of the forecast period, relatively low mortgage rates at least through 2016 and household formations in excess of one million a year in 2016 and 2017.This housing start forecast for 2016 seems way too optimistic and I doubt the builders could ramp up that quickly. Also I doubt we will see 200 thousand jobs added per month through 2017; it takes less that 100 thousand jobs per month to hold the unemployment rate steady - and I've been expecting job growth to slow.
Friday:
? At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays for September. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in personal income, and for a 0.2% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.
? Also at 8:30 AM, the Employment Cost Index for Q3. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in Q3.
? At 9:45 AM, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for October. The consensus is for a reading of 49.2, up from 48.7 in September.
? At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for October). The consensus is for a reading of 92.5, up from the preliminary reading of 92.1.
BEA: Personal Income increased 0.1% in September, Core PCE prices up 1.3% year-over-year Posted: 10/30/2015 8:32:00 AM
From the BEA, the Personal Income and Outlays report for September: Personal income increased $18.6 billion, or 0.1 percent ... in September, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
...
Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.2 percent in September, compared with an increase of 0.4 percent in August. ... The price index for PCE decreased 0.1 percent in September, compared with a decrease of less than 0.1 percent in August. The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.1 percent in September, the same increase as in August.
The September price index for PCE increased 0.2 percent from September a year ago. The September PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 1.3 percent from September a year ago.On inflation: the PCE price index was up 0.2% year-over-year (the decline in oil prices pushed down the headline price index). However core PCE is only up 1.3% year-over-year - still way below the Fed's target.
Chicago PMI increases Sharply, Final October Consumer Sentiment at 90.0 Posted: 10/30/2015 10:00:00 AM
Chicago PMI: Oct Chicago Business Barometer Up 7.5 Points To 56.2 The Chicago Business Barometer increased 7.5 points to 56.2 in October from 48.7 in September, led by strong gains in both Production and New Orders.
The sharp increase in the Barometer pushed it to the highest since January and marks a promising start to the fourth quarter, building on the small gain made in Q3.
...
Chief Economist of MNI Indicators Philip Uglow said, ?The dissapointing September data look more like an aberration than the start of a trend, and the October results mark a good start to the final quarter of the year. Respondents were optimistic that orders will continue to pick-up, consistent with an acceleration in economic activity in Q4.?
emphasis added This was well above the consensus forecast of 49.2.
Click on graph for larger image.
The final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for October was at 90.0, down from the preliminary reading of 92.1, and up from 87.2 in September.
Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in September, Lowest since October 2008 Posted: 10/30/2015 12:54:00 PM
Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate declined in September to 1.41%, down from 1.45% in August. Freddie's rate is down from 1.96% in September 2014, and the rate in September was the lowest level since October 2008.
Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%.
These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".
Note: Fannie Mae will report their Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate for September soon.
Click on graph for larger image
Although the rate is declining, the "normal" serious delinquency rate is under 1%.
The serious delinquency rate has fallen 0.55 percentage points over the last year, and at that rate of improvement, the serious delinquency rate will not be below 1% until the second half of 2016.
So even though delinquencies and distressed sales are declining, I expect an above normal level of Fannie and Freddie distressed sales through 2016 (mostly in judicial foreclosure states).
You are subscribed to email updates from Calculated Risk
To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.Powered by InvestingChannelCalculated Risk Blog, P.O. Box 567, Midtown Station, New York, New York 10018
DISCLAIMER:
This alert has been sent to you courtesy of calculatedriskblog.com
This is not a solicitation for the purchase or sale of securities.
Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research and due diligence,
and/or obtain professional advice, prior to making any investment decision.
Advertisements and sponsorships are provided as a service to CalculatedRiskBlog users.
CalculatedRiskBlog is not responsible for their content, services or products.
The statements and opinions contained in this advertisement are not those of CalculatedRiskBlog,
and CalculatedRiskBlog disclaims and liability for or arising from such statements and opinions.
commercial appraiser, commercial appraisal, commercial appraiser la
Comments