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Thanks!
Curtis D. Harris, BS, CGREA, REB
Bachelor of Science in Real Estate, CSULA
State Certified General Appraiser
Real Estate Broker
ASTM E-2018 Commercial Real Estate Inspector
HUD 203k Consultant
HUD/FHA Real Estate Appraiser/Reviewer
FannieMae REO ConsultantCTAC LEED Certification The Harris Company, Forensic Appraisers and Real Estate Consultants
*PIRS/Harris Company and the Science of Real Estate-Partners*630 North Sepulveda Boulevard, Suite 9A
El Segundo, CA. 90245
310-337-1973 Office
310-251-3959 CellWebSite: http://www.harriscompanyrec.com Resume: http://www.harriscompanyrec.com/rESUME2011.pdf Commercial Appraiser Blog: http://commercialappraiser.typepad.com/blog/ IT'S THE LAW-Designation Discrimination is Illegal [FIRREA, Sec. 564.6]: Professional Association Membership: "A State Certified General Appraiser may not be excluded from consideration for an assignment for a federally related transaction by virtue of membership or lack of membership in any particular appraisal organization," including the appraisal institute. http://www.ofi.state.la.us/re-otspart565.pdf CONFIDENTIALITY/PRIVILEGE NOTICE: This transmission and any attachments are intended solely for the addressee. The information contained in this transmission is confidential in nature and protected from further use or disclosure under U.S. Pub. L. 106-102, 113 U.S. Stat. 1338 (1999), and may be subject to consultant/appraiser-client or other legal privilege. Your use or disclosure of this information for any purpose other than that intended by its transmittal is strictly prohibited and may subject you to fines and/or penalties under federal and state law. If you are not the intended recipient of this transmission, please destroy all copies received and confirm destruction to the sender via return transmittal.
From: Calculated Risk [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Saturday, October 31, 2015 10:09 AM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Calculated Risk
Calculated Risk
Restaurant Performance Index indicates slower expansion in SeptemberQ3 2015 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real EstateOctober 2015: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 264 InstitutionsSchedule for Week of November 1stRestaurant Performance Index indicates slower expansion in September Posted: 10/30/2015 3:41:00 PM
Here is a minor indicator I follow from the National Restaurant Association: Restaurant Performance Index: Operators? Sales Outlook at Two-Year LowAlthough same-store sales and customer traffic remained positive in September, the National Restaurant Association?s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) registered a modest decline. The RPI ? a monthly composite index that tracks the health of and outlook for the U.S. restaurant industry ? stood at 101.4 in September, down slightly from a level of 101.5 in August. Despite the decline, September represented the 31st consecutive month in which the RPI stood above 100, which signifies expansion in the index of key industry indicators.
...
?The RPI's current situation indicators continued to illustrate growth in September, as both same-store sales and customer traffic remained positive,? said Hudson Riehle, senior vice president of the Research and Knowledge Group for the Association. ?However, restaurant operators are more cautious about business conditions in the months ahead, as the proportion expecting a sales increase fell to a two-year low.?
emphasis addedClick on graph for larger image.
The index decreased to 101.4 in September, down from 101.5 in August. (above 100 indicates expansion).
Restaurant spending is discretionary, so even though this is "D-list" data, I like to check it every month. Even with this decline, the index is indicating expansion, and it appears restaurants are benefiting from lower gasoline prices.
Q3 2015 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate Posted: 10/30/2015 5:33:00 PM
The BEA released the underlying details for the Q3 advance GDP report today.
Yesterday, the BEA reported that investment in non-residential structures decreased slightly in Q3.
The decline was due to less investment in petroleum exploration. Investment in petroleum and natural gas exploration declined from a $88.6 billion annual rate in Q2 to a $75.0 billion annual rate in Q3. "Mining exploration, shafts, and wells" investment is down 49% year-over-year.
Excluding petroleum, non-residential investment in structures increased solidly in Q3.
Click on graph for larger image.
The first graph shows investment in offices, malls and lodging as a percent of GDP. Office, mall and lodging investment has increased a little recently, but from a very low level.
Investment in offices increased in Q3, and is up 24% year-over-year -increasing from a very low level - and is still near the lows for previous recessions (as percent of GDP). .
Investment in multimerchandise shopping structures (malls) peaked in 2007 and is up slightly year-over-year. The vacancy rate for malls is still very high, so investment will probably stay low for some time.
Lodging investment increased further in Q3, and with the hotel occupancy rate near record levels, it is likely that hotel investment will increase further in the near future. Lodging investment is up 39% year-over-year.
The second graph is for Residential investment components as a percent of GDP. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, RI includes new single family structures, multifamily structures, home improvement, Brokers? commissions and other ownership transfer costs, and a few minor categories (dormitories, manufactured homes).
Home improvement was the top category for twenty consecutive quarters following the housing bust ... but now investment in single family structures has been back on top for the last 7 quarters and will probably stay there for a long time.
However - even though investment in single family structures has increased from the bottom - single family investment is still very low, and still below the bottom for previous recessions as a percent of GDP. I expect further increases over the next few years.
Investment in single family structures was $211 billion (SAAR) (about 1.2% of GDP).
Investment in home improvement was at a $178 billion Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in Q1 (just under 1.0% of GDP).
These graphs show investment is generally increasing, but is still very low.
October 2015: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 264 Institutions Posted: 10/31/2015 8:11:00 AM
This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.
Here is the unofficial problem bank list for October 2015.
Changes and comments from surferdude808: Update on the Unofficial Problem Bank List for October 2015. During the month, the list fell from 276 institutions to 264 after 12 removals. Assets dropped by $2.8 billion to an aggregate $79.2 billion. A year ago, the list held 422 institutions with assets of $133.5 billion.
Actions have been terminated against Severn Savings Bank, FSB, Annapolis, MD ($779 million Ticker: SVBI); Artisans' Bank, Wilmington, DE ($472 million); Valley Bank & Trust, Brighton, CO ($295 million); The Citizens Bank of Logan, Logan, OH ($191 million); United International Bank, Flushing, NY ($184 million); First National Bank, Goodland, KS ($181 million); Goldwater Bank, N.A., Scottsdale, AZ ($103 million); Tri-Valley Bank, San Ramon, CA ($103 million Ticker: TRVB); PNA Bank, Chicago, IL ($96 million); and Park State Bank & Trust, Woodland Park, CO ($91 million).
Two banks failed during the month -- The Bank of Georgia, Peachtree City, GA ($294 million) and Hometown National Bank, Longview, WA ($5 million). Astonishingly, there was a bank failure in Georgia as we thought there were not any banks left to fail in the state. Since the on-set of the Great Recession, 90 banks headquartered in Georgia have failed. Nearly 26 percent of the 352 banks headquartered in Georgia at year-end 2007 have failed. These failures have cost the FDIC insurance fund about $11.7 billion, with the average cost approximating an exorbitant 34 percent of failed bank assets. It does not take rocket science to understand this is what happens when unfettered construction & development lending collides with a housing downturn.
Schedule for Week of November 1st Posted: 10/31/2015 1:01:00 PM
The key report this week is the October employment report on Friday.
Other key indicators include October vehicle sales, the October ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, and the September trade deficit.
There will be several Federal Reserve speakers this week.----- Monday, October 26th -----
10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for October. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 50.0, down from 50.2 in September.
Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.
The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion at 50.2% in September. The employment index was at 50.5%, and the new orders index was at 50.1%.
10:00 AM: Construction Spending for September. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in construction spending.
2:00 PM ET: the October 2015 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices from the Federal Reserve.----- Tuesday, October 27th -----
All day: Light vehicle sales for October. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to decrease to 17.7 million SAAR in October from 18.1 million in September (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).
This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the September sales rate.
10:00 AM: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for September. The consensus is a 0.9% decrease in orders.----- Wednesday, October 28th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for October. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 185,000 payroll jobs added in October, down from 200,000 in September.
8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for September from the Census Bureau.
This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through August. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.
The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to be at $41.1 billion in September from $48.3 billion in August.
10:00 AM: the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for October. The consensus is for index to decrease to 56.7 from 56.9 in September.----- Thursday, October 29th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 262 thousand initial claims, up from 260 thousand the previous week.----- Friday, October 30th -----
8:30 AM: Employment Report for October. The consensus is for an increase of 190,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in October, up from the 142,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in September.
The consensus is for the unemployment rate to decrease to 5.0%.
This graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.
In September, the year-over-year change was 2.75 million jobs.
A key will be the change in real wages - and as the unemployment rate falls, wage growth should pickup.
3:00 PM: Consumer Credit for September from the Federal Reserve. The consensus is consumer credit increased by $18.0 billion in September.
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Thanks!
Curtis D. Harris, BS, CGREA, REB
Bachelor of Science in Real Estate, CSULA
State Certified General Appraiser
Real Estate Broker
ASTM E-2018 Commercial Real Estate Inspector
HUD 203k Consultant
HUD/FHA Real Estate Appraiser/Reviewer
FannieMae REO ConsultantCTAC LEED Certification The Harris Company, Forensic Appraisers and Real Estate Consultants
*PIRS/Harris Company and the Science of Real Estate-Partners*630 North Sepulveda Boulevard, Suite 9A
El Segundo, CA. 90245
310-337-1973 Office
310-251-3959 CellWebSite: http://www.harriscompanyrec.com Resume: http://www.harriscompanyrec.com/rESUME2011.pdf Commercial Appraiser Blog: http://commercialappraiser.typepad.com/blog/ IT'S THE LAW-Designation Discrimination is Illegal [FIRREA, Sec. 564.6]: Professional Association Membership: "A State Certified General Appraiser may not be excluded from consideration for an assignment for a federally related transaction by virtue of membership or lack of membership in any particular appraisal organization," including the appraisal institute. http://www.ofi.state.la.us/re-otspart565.pdf CONFIDENTIALITY/PRIVILEGE NOTICE: This transmission and any attachments are intended solely for the addressee. The information contained in this transmission is confidential in nature and protected from further use or disclosure under U.S. Pub. L. 106-102, 113 U.S. Stat. 1338 (1999), and may be subject to consultant/appraiser-client or other legal privilege. Your use or disclosure of this information for any purpose other than that intended by its transmittal is strictly prohibited and may subject you to fines and/or penalties under federal and state law. If you are not the intended recipient of this transmission, please destroy all copies received and confirm destruction to the sender via return transmittal.
From: Calculated Risk [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Saturday, October 31, 2015 10:09 AM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Calculated Risk
Calculated Risk
Restaurant Performance Index indicates slower expansion in SeptemberQ3 2015 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real EstateOctober 2015: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 264 InstitutionsSchedule for Week of November 1stRestaurant Performance Index indicates slower expansion in September Posted: 10/30/2015 3:41:00 PM
Here is a minor indicator I follow from the National Restaurant Association: Restaurant Performance Index: Operators? Sales Outlook at Two-Year LowAlthough same-store sales and customer traffic remained positive in September, the National Restaurant Association?s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) registered a modest decline. The RPI ? a monthly composite index that tracks the health of and outlook for the U.S. restaurant industry ? stood at 101.4 in September, down slightly from a level of 101.5 in August. Despite the decline, September represented the 31st consecutive month in which the RPI stood above 100, which signifies expansion in the index of key industry indicators.
...
?The RPI's current situation indicators continued to illustrate growth in September, as both same-store sales and customer traffic remained positive,? said Hudson Riehle, senior vice president of the Research and Knowledge Group for the Association. ?However, restaurant operators are more cautious about business conditions in the months ahead, as the proportion expecting a sales increase fell to a two-year low.?
emphasis addedClick on graph for larger image.
The index decreased to 101.4 in September, down from 101.5 in August. (above 100 indicates expansion).
Restaurant spending is discretionary, so even though this is "D-list" data, I like to check it every month. Even with this decline, the index is indicating expansion, and it appears restaurants are benefiting from lower gasoline prices.
Q3 2015 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate Posted: 10/30/2015 5:33:00 PM
The BEA released the underlying details for the Q3 advance GDP report today.
Yesterday, the BEA reported that investment in non-residential structures decreased slightly in Q3.
The decline was due to less investment in petroleum exploration. Investment in petroleum and natural gas exploration declined from a $88.6 billion annual rate in Q2 to a $75.0 billion annual rate in Q3. "Mining exploration, shafts, and wells" investment is down 49% year-over-year.
Excluding petroleum, non-residential investment in structures increased solidly in Q3.
Click on graph for larger image.
The first graph shows investment in offices, malls and lodging as a percent of GDP. Office, mall and lodging investment has increased a little recently, but from a very low level.
Investment in offices increased in Q3, and is up 24% year-over-year -increasing from a very low level - and is still near the lows for previous recessions (as percent of GDP). .
Investment in multimerchandise shopping structures (malls) peaked in 2007 and is up slightly year-over-year. The vacancy rate for malls is still very high, so investment will probably stay low for some time.
Lodging investment increased further in Q3, and with the hotel occupancy rate near record levels, it is likely that hotel investment will increase further in the near future. Lodging investment is up 39% year-over-year.
The second graph is for Residential investment components as a percent of GDP. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, RI includes new single family structures, multifamily structures, home improvement, Brokers? commissions and other ownership transfer costs, and a few minor categories (dormitories, manufactured homes).
Home improvement was the top category for twenty consecutive quarters following the housing bust ... but now investment in single family structures has been back on top for the last 7 quarters and will probably stay there for a long time.
However - even though investment in single family structures has increased from the bottom - single family investment is still very low, and still below the bottom for previous recessions as a percent of GDP. I expect further increases over the next few years.
Investment in single family structures was $211 billion (SAAR) (about 1.2% of GDP).
Investment in home improvement was at a $178 billion Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in Q1 (just under 1.0% of GDP).
These graphs show investment is generally increasing, but is still very low.
October 2015: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 264 Institutions Posted: 10/31/2015 8:11:00 AM
This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.
Here is the unofficial problem bank list for October 2015.
Changes and comments from surferdude808: Update on the Unofficial Problem Bank List for October 2015. During the month, the list fell from 276 institutions to 264 after 12 removals. Assets dropped by $2.8 billion to an aggregate $79.2 billion. A year ago, the list held 422 institutions with assets of $133.5 billion.
Actions have been terminated against Severn Savings Bank, FSB, Annapolis, MD ($779 million Ticker: SVBI); Artisans' Bank, Wilmington, DE ($472 million); Valley Bank & Trust, Brighton, CO ($295 million); The Citizens Bank of Logan, Logan, OH ($191 million); United International Bank, Flushing, NY ($184 million); First National Bank, Goodland, KS ($181 million); Goldwater Bank, N.A., Scottsdale, AZ ($103 million); Tri-Valley Bank, San Ramon, CA ($103 million Ticker: TRVB); PNA Bank, Chicago, IL ($96 million); and Park State Bank & Trust, Woodland Park, CO ($91 million).
Two banks failed during the month -- The Bank of Georgia, Peachtree City, GA ($294 million) and Hometown National Bank, Longview, WA ($5 million). Astonishingly, there was a bank failure in Georgia as we thought there were not any banks left to fail in the state. Since the on-set of the Great Recession, 90 banks headquartered in Georgia have failed. Nearly 26 percent of the 352 banks headquartered in Georgia at year-end 2007 have failed. These failures have cost the FDIC insurance fund about $11.7 billion, with the average cost approximating an exorbitant 34 percent of failed bank assets. It does not take rocket science to understand this is what happens when unfettered construction & development lending collides with a housing downturn.
Schedule for Week of November 1st Posted: 10/31/2015 1:01:00 PM
The key report this week is the October employment report on Friday.
Other key indicators include October vehicle sales, the October ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, and the September trade deficit.
There will be several Federal Reserve speakers this week.----- Monday, October 26th -----
10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for October. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 50.0, down from 50.2 in September.
Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.
The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion at 50.2% in September. The employment index was at 50.5%, and the new orders index was at 50.1%.
10:00 AM: Construction Spending for September. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in construction spending.
2:00 PM ET: the October 2015 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices from the Federal Reserve.----- Tuesday, October 27th -----
All day: Light vehicle sales for October. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to decrease to 17.7 million SAAR in October from 18.1 million in September (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).
This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the September sales rate.
10:00 AM: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for September. The consensus is a 0.9% decrease in orders.----- Wednesday, October 28th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for October. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 185,000 payroll jobs added in October, down from 200,000 in September.
8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for September from the Census Bureau.
This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through August. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.
The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to be at $41.1 billion in September from $48.3 billion in August.
10:00 AM: the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for October. The consensus is for index to decrease to 56.7 from 56.9 in September.----- Thursday, October 29th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 262 thousand initial claims, up from 260 thousand the previous week.----- Friday, October 30th -----
8:30 AM: Employment Report for October. The consensus is for an increase of 190,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in October, up from the 142,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in September.
The consensus is for the unemployment rate to decrease to 5.0%.
This graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.
In September, the year-over-year change was 2.75 million jobs.
A key will be the change in real wages - and as the unemployment rate falls, wage growth should pickup.
3:00 PM: Consumer Credit for September from the Federal Reserve. The consensus is consumer credit increased by $18.0 billion in September.
You are subscribed to email updates from Calculated Risk
To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.Powered by InvestingChannelCalculated Risk Blog, P.O. Box 567, Midtown Station, New York, New York 10018
DISCLAIMER:
This alert has been sent to you courtesy of calculatedriskblog.com
This is not a solicitation for the purchase or sale of securities.
Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research and due diligence,
and/or obtain professional advice, prior to making any investment decision.
Advertisements and sponsorships are provided as a service to CalculatedRiskBlog users.
CalculatedRiskBlog is not responsible for their content, services or products.
The statements and opinions contained in this advertisement are not those of CalculatedRiskBlog,
and CalculatedRiskBlog disclaims and liability for or arising from such statements and opinions.
commercial appraiser, commercial appraisal, commercial appraiser la
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