Curtis D. Harris, BS, CGREA, REB
Associate Degree in Architecture, LACCBachelor of Science in Real Estate, CSULA
State Certified General Appraiser
Real Estate Broker
ASTM E-2018 Commercial Real Estate Inspector
HUD 203k Consultant
HUD/FHA Real Estate Appraiser/Reviewer
FannieMae REO ConsultantCTAC LEED-GREEN Certificate The Harris Company, Forensic Appraisers and Real Estate Consultants
*PIRS/Harris Company and the Science of Real Estate-Partners Since 1984*630 North Sepulveda Boulevard, Suite 9A
El Segundo, CA. 90245
310-251-3959 CellWebSite: http://www.harriscompanyrec.com Resume: http://www.harriscompanyrec.com/rESUME2011.pdf Commercial Appraiser Blog: http://commercialappraiser.typepad.com/blog/ IT'S THE LAW-Designation Discrimination is Illegal [FIRREA, Sec. 564.6]: Professional Association Membership: "A State Certified General Appraiser may not be excluded from consideration for an assignment for a federally related transaction by virtue of membership or lack of membership in any particular appraisal organization," including the appraisal institute. http://www.ofi.state.la.us/re-otspart565.pdf CONFIDENTIALITY/PRIVILEGE NOTICE: This transmission and any attachments are intended solely for the addressee. The information contained in this transmission is confidential in nature and protected from further use or disclosure under U.S. Pub. L. 106-102, 113 U.S. Stat. 1338 (1999), and may be subject to consultant/appraiser-client or other legal privilege. Your use or disclosure of this information for any purpose other than that intended by its transmittal is strictly prohibited and may subject you to fines and/or penalties under federal and state law. If you are not the intended recipient of this transmission, please destroy all copies received and confirm destruction to the sender via return transmittal.
From: Calculated Risk [mailto:email@example.com]
Sent: Saturday, 29 April, 2017 10:08 AM
Subject: Calculated Risk
Today's Top StoriesChicago PMI increases in AprilOil: "Yet another strong week" for Rig CountFannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in March, Lowest since Feb 2008Goldman: U.S. Economy "now at full employment"(Sponsored) 30 trades at no cost!Schedule for Week of Apr 30, 2017
Chicago PMI increases in AprilEarlier, the Chicago PMI: April Chicago Business Barometer at 58.3 vs 57.7 in March The MNI Chicago Business Barometer increased to 58.3 in April from 57.7 in March, the highest level since January 2015.
â€œThe April Chicago report showcased another impressive month, with firms reporting solid growth. Rising demand and firm production led to a pick-up in hiring by firms. Although the emplo...
Oil: "Yet another strong week" for Rig CountA few comments from Steven Kopits of Princeton Energy Advisors LLC on Apr 28, 2017:â€¢ Total US oil rigs were up 9 to 697
â€¢ US horizontal oil rigs surged at twice the â€˜callâ€™ pace, up 11 to 592
â€¢ Next week, horizontal oil rigs will reach the full â€˜callâ€™ analysts have penciled in for this cycle. Click on graph for larger image.
CR note: This graph shows the US horizontal rig count by basin.
Graph and comments Courtesy of Steven Kopits of Princeton Energy Advisors LLC.
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Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in March, Lowest since Feb 2008Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate declined to 1.12% in March, from 1.19% in February. The serious delinquency rate is down from 1.44% in March 2016.
This is the lowest serious delinquency rate since February 2008.
These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".
The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%.
Click on graph for larger image
Although the rate is declining, the "normal" serious delinquency rate is under 1%.
The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate has fallen 0.32 percentage points over the last year, and at that rate of improvement, the serious delinquency rate will not be below 1% until this Summer.
Note: Freddie Mac reported earlier.
Goldman: U.S. Economy "now at full employment"A few excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economists Jan Hatzius and Daan Struyven: On a broad range of measures, the US economy is now at full employment. Headline unemployment has fallen below most estimates of the structural rate, the discouraged worker share is back to pre-recession lows, and the still somewhat elevated share of involuntary part-timers is arguably structural.
And while the employment/population ratio remains well below its pre-recession level, the gap is fully explained by a combination of population aging and declining participation of prime-age men. This trend among prime-age men has continued for over six decades, has not stood in the way of a strong recent wage acceleration in that demographic, and therefore looks structural.
Job growth remains well above the pace needed to stabilize unemployment. The speed of the likely overshoot is comparable to the average postwar cycle, and we have lowered our end-2018 unemployment rate forecast to 4.1% from 4.3% prior.
Schedule for Week of Apr 30, 2017The key report this week is the April employment report on Friday.
Other key indicators include the April ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, April auto sales, and the March Trade Deficit.----- Monday, May 1st -----
8:30 AM: Personal Income and Outlays for March. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.1% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to be unchanged.
10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for April. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 56.5, down from 57.2 in March.
Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.
The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion at 57.2% in March. The employment index was at 58.9%, and the new orders index was at 64.5%.
10:00 AM: Construction Spending for March. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in construction spending.----- Tuesday, May 2nd -----
All day: Light vehicle sales for April. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to increase to 17.2 million SAAR in April, from 16.6 million in March (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).
This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the March sales rate.----- Wednesday, May 3rd -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for April. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 170,000 payroll jobs added in April, down from 263,000 added in March.
10:00 AM: the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for April. The consensus is for index to increase to 55.8 from 55.2 in March.
2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. No change to policy is expected at this meeting.----- Thursday, May 4th -----
8:30 AM ET: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 246 thousand initial claims, down from 257 thousand the previous week.
8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for March from the Census Bureau.
This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through January. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.
The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to be at $44.5 billion in March from $43.6 billion in February.
10:00 AM: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for March. The consensus is a 0.4% increase in orders.----- Friday, May 5th -----
8:30 AM: Employment Report for April. The consensus is for an increase of 185,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in April, up from the 98,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in March.
The consensus is for the unemployment rate to increase to 4.6%.
This graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.
In March, the year-over-year change was 2.13 million jobs.
A key will be the change in wages.
3:00 PM: Consumer credit from the Federal Reserve. The consensus is for a $15.6 billion increase in credit.
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