Curtis D. Harris, BS, CGREA, REB
Associate Degree in Architecture, LACCBachelor of Science in Real Estate, CSULA
State Certified General Appraiser
Real Estate Broker
ASTM E-2018 Commercial Real Estate Inspector
HUD 203k Consultant
HUD/FHA Real Estate Appraiser/Reviewer
FannieMae REO ConsultantCTAC LEED-GREEN Certificate The Harris Company, Forensic Appraisers and Real Estate Consultants
*PIRS/Harris Company and the Science of Real Estate-Partners Since 1984*630 North Sepulveda Boulevard, Suite 9A
El Segundo, CA. 90245
310-251-3959 CellWebSite: http://www.harriscompanyrec.com Resume: http://www.harriscompanyrec.com/rESUME2011.pdf Commercial Appraiser Blog: http://commercialappraiser.typepad.com/blog/ IT'S THE LAW-Designation Discrimination is Illegal [FIRREA, Sec. 564.6]: Professional Association Membership: "A State Certified General Appraiser may not be excluded from consideration for an assignment for a federally related transaction by virtue of membership or lack of membership in any particular appraisal organization," including the appraisal institute. http://www.ofi.state.la.us/re-otspart565.pdf CONFIDENTIALITY/PRIVILEGE NOTICE: This transmission and any attachments are intended solely for the addressee. The information contained in this transmission is confidential in nature and protected from further use or disclosure under U.S. Pub. L. 106-102, 113 U.S. Stat. 1338 (1999), and may be subject to consultant/appraiser-client or other legal privilege. Your use or disclosure of this information for any purpose other than that intended by its transmittal is strictly prohibited and may subject you to fines and/or penalties under federal and state law. If you are not the intended recipient of this transmission, please destroy all copies received and confirm destruction to the sender via return transmittal.
From: Calculated Risk [mailto:firstname.lastname@example.org]
Sent: Saturday, 1 April, 2017 10:09 AM
Subject: Calculated Risk
Today's Top StoriesFannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in February, Lowest since March 2008Q1 GDP Forecasts Downgraded(Sponsored) 30 trades at no cost!Schedule for Week of Apr 2, 2017
Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in February, Lowest since March 2008Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate declined to 1.19% in February, from 1.20% in January. The serious delinquency rate is down from 1.52% in February 2016.
This is the lowest serious delinquency rate since March 2008.
These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".
The Fannie Mae serio...
Q1 GDP Forecasts DowngradedThe advance GDP report for Q1 GDP will be released in April. Based on the February Personal Income and Outlays report released this morning, it appears PCE growth is tracking less than 0.5% in Q1. Here are a few updated forecasts for Q1:
From the Altanta Fed: GDPNowThe GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 0.9 percent on March 31, down from 1.0 percent on March 24.
emphasis addedFrom the NY Fed Nowcasting ReportThe FRBNY Staff Nowcast stands at 2.9% for 2017:Q1 and 2.6% for 2017:Q2.
Negative news from consumption data reduced the nowcast by about one-tenth of a percentage point for both quarters. From Merrill Lynch: Real personal spending fell 0.1% mom in February, missing expectations of 0.1% growth ... On balance, these data sliced 0.7pp from 1Q GDP tracking, bringing us down to 1.2% qoq saar.
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Schedule for Week of Apr 2, 2017The key report this week is the March employment report on Friday.
Other key indicators include the March ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, March auto sales, and the February Trade Deficit.
Also the Q1 quarterly Reis surveys for office and malls will be released this week.----- Monday, Apr 3rd -----
10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for March. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 57.1, down from 57.7 in February.
Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.
The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion at 57.7% in February. The employment index was at 54.2%, and the new orders index was at 65.1%.
10:00 AM: Construction Spending for February. The consensus is for a 1.0% increase in construction spending.----- Tuesday, Apr 4th-----
8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for February from the Census Bureau.
This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through January. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.
The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to be at $44.5 billion in February from $48.5 billion in January.
Early: Reis Q1 2017 Mall Survey of rents and vacancy rates.
All day: Light vehicle sales for March. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to decrease to 17.4 million SAAR in March, from 17.5 million in February (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).
This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the February sales rate.
10:00 AM: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for February. The consensus is a 1.0% increase in orders.----- Wednesday, Apr 5th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for March. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 170,000 payroll jobs added in March, down from 298,000 added in February.
Early: Reis Q1 2017 Office Survey of rents and vacancy rates.
10:00 AM: the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for March. The consensus is for index to decrease to 57.0 from 57.6 in February.
2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes for the Meeting of March 14 - 15, 2017----- Thursday, Apr 6th -----
8:30 AM ET: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 250 thousand initial claims, down from 258 thousand the previous week.----- Friday, Apr 7th -----
8:30 AM: Employment Report for March. The consensus is for an increase of 178,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in March, down from the 235,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in February.
The consensus is for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.7%.
This graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.
In February, the year-over-year change was 2.35 million jobs.
A key will be the change in wages.
10:00 AM: Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories for February.
3:00 PM: Consumer credit from the Federal Reserve. The consensus is for a $15.0 billion increase in credit.
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